Behind the Curtain

By Jim Ferstle
Welcome "behind the curtain" of the sports drug testing process. As sports doping has become more sophisticated, the methods used to catch someone who is doping have had to become better as well.  In endurance sports, such as distance running and cycling, blood doping, enhancing the blood for a performance gain, has become the "battleground."

How do you tell the difference between when someone is merely training hard, getting proper recovery and diet, or doping?  Tests have been developed to detect the use of recombinant erythropoietin(EPO), the use of which had replaced blood doping(removing and reinfusing blood to enhance the oxygen carrying capacity of one's blood.) as the method of choice for endurance athletes.

But those using rhuEPO have discovered a "work around" to minimize the danger of being detected of taking what is called "micro doses," small amounts of rhuEPO.  They combine use of the rhuEPO in micro doses with "old fashioned" blood doping--removing one's blood and reinfusing it close to a competition in order to increase your red blood cells/oxygen carrying capacity of the blood.

The reason for going back to "old fashioned" blood doping is that it is much harder to detect, especially when   the individual uses his or her own blood.  How can you tell if somebody has done a "vampire transfusion"(sucking out one's own blood and putting it back in again)?  The answer has been a protocol known as the biological passport.  Simply stated the biological passport is a comparative analysis of various blood parameters over time,  tracking and the changes and .interpreting what those changes mean.

Detecting use of rhuEPO is a simpler process.  Scientists developing the test discovered that the recombinant(synthetic) EPO was different than the EPO produced by one's body.  (EPO is the body's natural "trigger" for stimulating the production of new red blood cells--reticulocytes.) Thus, using a process called electrophoresis, synthetic EPO could be differentiated from the EPO everyone produces normally.

So, the "sophisticated dopers," those who didn't merely take a PED(performance enhancing drug/substance), but used every means at their disposal to make sure the substance or method they were using had minimal danger of being detected by the current drug testing protocols.  It's been called the "cat and mouse" game, the mouse being that doper and the cat being the anti-doping corps attempting to catch them.

If you've ever watched a cat hunt its prey, you'll notice the cat patiently watching a mouse, a bird, whatever it  is after, and studying the patterns, movements of the prey.  The anti-doping scientists, to some extent, do the same thing.  They compare the physiological profiles of "normal" athletes with that of those who are doped.  Patterns emerge.  Abnormalities are discovered that allow the scientists to determine whether the individual is doping or not.

For example, the reticulocytes, mentioned above, are more plentiful in the blood of a person who is stressed in such a way that the body compensates by attempting to increase red blood cell production.  If you travel to a high altitude, for example, oxygen is less available so the body adapts by producing more red blood cells.  You can artificially attempt to do this by getting an injection of rhuEPO, which will quickly increase your red blood cells, but the body also has a feedback mechanism, a governor, that recognizes that this sudden increase in EPO is not part of the regular process.

It is an artificial, short term enhancement that, if continued, will overload the blood with red cells, creating thick blood and potential negative health effects.  So the body shuts down its production of reticulocytes to slow the increase in red cells.  So, injecting rhuEPO into an otherwise healthy individual leaves a tell-tale indicator of artificial enhancement, a lower retiuculocyte count, fewer young red blood cells.  Since red cells stick around in your body for months, you get a mixture of "old" and "new" red cells.  This mixture is one of the indicators that someone has artificially attempted to produce more red cells instead of a natural body adaptation of producing a "normal" level of red cells.

This analysis of biological fluids and changes is complex, an interconnected cascade of reactions and substances.  Each individual can be different.  Thus the data required to differentiate between those who are cheating and those who aren't is not as simple as merely finding a substance, such as rhuEPO, in an athlete's body.  What the discussion between the two sports scientists--Robin Parisotto and Michele Ferrari--that we've had here over the last few days is about is the interpretation of biological passport data.

It gives you a peak behind that "curtain" of discussions that go on every time an abnormal profile shows up on doping tests/athletes' biological passports.  Recently Mario Zorzoli and his colleagues at UCI(Cyclings world governing body) published a paper that did a similar analysis of some of the cases that UCI has seen using the biological passport.  Some athletes were found guilty, others not.  The paper illustrated the complexity of the "cat and mouse game," of determining who doped and who didn't.

And none of this addresses the legal issues that come after a scientific panel has ruled that a case they have examined should be prosecuted as a doping violation.  This peak behind the curtain is not the final word in this sort of situation, it's merely a peak at how these decisions are made, the arguments that both sides engage in during this process.  Why is this important?  Because doping is a problem for modern sport.  Not just at the elite level, but if you follow news reports of doping, you know that Masters cyclists are using rhuEPO, high school kids are using steroids.  A symposium was just held this past weekend in Stockholm tilted: "Doping as a Public Health Issue."

There is a growing number of scientists, ethicists, and sports trend watchers who believe that doping will be the norm for sports in the future.  That technology is advancing at such a rapid pace and the will to spend the money necessary to police doping is seemingly not very strong, so sports, especially at the professional level, will be more about entertainment than the games.  In the future, they believe, genetically gifted, maybe even engineered, athletes will display their talents for the public's amusement.

Whatever the future, what we can learn from the past is that doping has been largely ignored until recently and has grown as an industry and as a means of achieving success for aspiring athletes.  We can sit by and watch as that trend continues or learn about the issue.  Peak behind the curtain and see what is happening and learn more about what needs to be done about it.  The choice, as always, is yours.

The Scientists Debate--Rebuttal to Ferrari

By Robin Parisotto

Point 1

Michele Ferrari:  The value of Hemoglobin=13.0 was taken the last day of the Giro, dated  May 31, 2009, preceded by a Hemoglobin=13.6 dated 18/05/2009 and a Hemoglobin=14.8 at the start of the Italian race (May 7, 2009), a decrease of 12.2% (from 14.8 to 13.0) fully compatible with what is reported in the literature with regards to cyclists involved in stage races (Int J Sports Med 2009, 30:130-138): Hemoglobin decreases by an average of 11.5% from the beginning to the end of the event, with individual drops ranging between 7% and 20.5%. 

This reduction is mainly due to an increase in PLASMA VOLUME and it is therefore normal for reticulocytes not to have increased... 

Robin Parisotto: It is interesting that during the Giro there was a volume shift of 11.5% but not during the Tour, arguably a much more arduous race. In the Tour,  Lance Armstrong’s Hemoglobin actually increased from 142 to 145 during the course of the race. While this represents only a 2% increase, it is a long way from the 11.5 and up to 20% decrease in Hemoglobin, typical of long races as proclaimed by Ferrari. You cannot have it both ways. Others have also made the same conclusions.

NY Daily News story on blood analysis is HERE.  Cyclingnews article is HERE.

Point 2

MF: The values ​​of Hemoglobin=16.0 in the samples reported as numbers 14 and 15 were collected on two consecutive days (June 16, 2009 and June 17, 2009) at altitude. 

RP: From the Cyclingnews article (see below)  it is indicated that Armstrong  had spent time at altitude between the low Hemoglobin value and the high Hemoglobin values, but it is unknown to me if the tests (conducted by the UCI) were while he ‘was’ at altitude as Ferrari has claimed. If these tests were conducted after returning from altitude then they are comparable to the Hemoglobin value of 16.1 when Lance Armstrong was tested at altitude on August 12, 2009 (I did not have this data point in the data set initially evaluated).  It would be unusual for both of the tests in June to have been done while at altitude however. The Biological Passport is informed by data collected at different times, different places and different conditions in order to assess any influence that factors such as altitude exposure could have on the profile. This can only be done if you have other reference points such as tests performed at or near sea-level.

According to the Cycling News article, the blood samples show major fluctuations in his hematocrit ratio. For example, it said, his hematocrit on May 31 2009, was 38.2% but 45.7% only a few weeks later, on June 16.

Cycling News excerpt: It is expected that Armstrong will challenge this evidence “by summoning medical experts who may say that a person's hematocrit score could conceivably jump 7.5 percentage points in 16 days because of external influences like changes in altitude and heavy perspiration.” For example, he was in Aspen, Colorado, USA, at nearly 8000 feet above sea level between the two above-mentioned tests.

Point 3

MF: The Athletes Hematological Passport Interpretation Technical Document (2.09) recommends the adoption of correction factors in Hemoglobin values ​​for athletes who reside in or have stayed at altitude in the two weeks prior to collection. For altitudes between 2000 and 2500m the correction factor is 0.8: therefore Hemoglobin=16.0 becomes 15.2. This value is perfectly in line with the results of the ten samples taken out of competition from October 15, 08 to April 30, 2009, which show an average value of Hb=14.8. 

RP: If the values that were posted on the Lance Armstrong website were those of official tests  the correction factor of 0.8 would have been applied if the Doping Control Form indicated that Lance Armstrong  was at or had been at altitude. Therefore based on Ferrari’s view the actual Hemoglobin value was 16.8 and not 16.0. In any case, if the true (official) Hemoglobin value was 15.2 then surely Lance Armstrong would have posted that value rather than the higher value. I cannot think of a reason why an official anti-doping test would consist of ‘two’ results ie. one for the athlete and another for the Passport evaluation.

Point 4

MF: The same Hemoglobin Z-score for samples 14 and 15 is equal to 0.75, when altitude is correctly taken into account. I remind you that this parameter is indicative of suspicion of doping when it is >3.19 (a value that corresponds to a 99.9% probability). 

RP: This is unapplicable information as the Z-score is not utilized in the Biological Passport. The OFF-score, a formula based on Hemoglobin and reticulocytes values is used. Irrespective the passport does not just look at a single parameter and how abnormal it is or not but rather the pattern, the magnitude of changes of the four parameters involved and at what times they are occurring (in-competition, out-of-competition or pre-competition). This helps to form a picture by which an evaluation can be made.

Point 5

MF: The values ​​at altitude of Hemoglobin=16.0 in June 2009 are further confirmed by the sample taken on 12/08/2009, always collected in Aspen, with Hemoglobin=16.1; a value that Parisotto refrained from showing, but that can easily be found in the same source quoted by the Australian author (Cyclingnews.com, July 13, 2012), along with 37 other blood samples reported by USADA.

RP:  The data I referenced did not contain any of this information. As part of the Biological Passport process this information only becomes available after an initial evaluation is conducted and where there is suspicion that would require the availability of such information to help guide a final conclusion/recommendation.  My opinion was formed in the context of an initial evaluation.

The other point is that there is no explanation why the reticulocyte values associated with the two high Hemoglobin values (allegedly due to altitude exposure) have decreased when the Hemoglobin is increasing. Whether you are at altitude or not if you are making more Hemoglobin (therefore more red blood cells) then it is intuitive that you should have more young red blood cells (reticulocytes), not less. I mean that is the point of altitude exposure in the first place, ie. to accelerate and increase, NOT decelerate and decrease your red blood cell production.

Boys Class AA Coaches Rankings

Minnesota Coaches Association
Week 4 (through 9/22/2012)
Released 9/24/2012
Teams
1              Stillwater
2              Wayzata
3              Edina
4              Hopkins
5              Eden Prairie
6              Rosemount
7              Owatonna
8              Minneapolis Southwest
T9           Centennial
T9           White Bear Lake
11           Bemidji
12           STMA
Others receiving votes:  Eastview, Orono

Individuals
1              Kevin Docherty, Cretin-Derham Hall
2              Wayde Hall, Stillwater
3              Will Burke, Edina
4              Connor Olson, Wayzata
5              Joe Klecker, Hopkins
6              Joey Duerr, Chaska
7              Zack Benning, Hastings
8              Eric  Colvin, Stillwater
9              Osba Ali, Richfield
10           Steven Cotter, Andover
11           Isaiah Barlow, Hutchinson
12           Ahmed Bule, St. Paul Central
Others receiving votes:  Brendan Sage, StMichael-Albertville; Cal Lawton, Eden Prairie; Jake Jankowski, Forest Lake; Nick Oelke, Eastview

Girls Class AA Coaches Rankings

Teams

1.       Eagan

2.       Wayzata

3.       East Ridge 

4.       Monticello

5.       Edina

6.       Chanhassen

7.       Eden Prairie

8.       Lakeville South  

9.       Hopkins

10.   Forest Lake

11.   Moorhead  

12.   Willmar

Others receiving votes:  Roseville, Mounds View, Totino Grace, Shakopee, Prior Lake, Lakeville North, Sartell, Alexandria

Individuals

1.       Maria Hauger, 12, Shakopee

2.       Danielle Anderson, 12, Egan

3.       Jenna Truedson, 10, Bemidji 

4.       Megan Hasz, 9, Alexandria    

5.       Bethany Hasz, 9, Alexandria   

6.       Bethany Kozak 11 White Bear Lake  

7.       Anna French, 10, Wayzata 

8.       Noelle Olson, 12, Big Lake  

9.       Mariah Betzler, 11`, Monticello

10.   Vivian Hett, 11, Burnsville   

11.   Carly Bandt, 11 Mounds View  

12.   Abby Lange, 10, Stillwater

Others receiving votes:  Grace Loeslie, 10, Chanhassen; Taylor Perkins, 12, Lakeville North; Anastasia Korzenowski, 8, Chanhassen;  Kaytlyn Larson,10, Lakeville South; Shannon Spalding, 10, Edina; Amber Seidenkranz, 11, Monticello; Anna Maurer, 11, Hill-Murray; Rhianna Rinke, 8, North Branch; Bailey Ness, 11, East Ridge 

USATF Minnesota Athletes of the Month for August and September Announced

Sherwood Sagedahl and Kathy Haubrich are USATF Minnesota's Athletes of the Month for September, Shane Streich and Shaina Burns  for August .

Sagedahl, a 73-year-old from Fairmont, set the world masters age-group record for the M70 pentathlon - the division for men over 70-years-old. Sagedahl scored 3806 points at the USA Masters Track & Field Championships in Lisle, Illinois in August,  topping the existing record of 3,755 set by Germany's Gerhard Tillmann in 2009.

Haubrich, 53, of Shakopee, was a member of two relay teams that established new American masters age-group records for women over 50-years-old in the 4 x 400-meter and 4 x 800-meter events. Haubrich's Athena Track Club team ran the 4 x 400 in 4:40.38 and the 4 x 800 in 10:45.23 at the USA Masters Championships.

Waseca High School sophomore, Streich, won the USA Track & Field Junior Olympic national title in the Intermediate Boys 1500-meters in July  in Baltimore in 3 :59.17.At the same meet, Streich also earned a silver medal at 3,000-meters.

Burns, a junior at Lakeville South High School, won the Intermediate Girls' heptathlon at the USATF Junior Olympic with  4704 points. 

A Scientific Debate

Earlier this week we posted an article by sports scientist Robin Parisotto of his analysis of biological data provided by the cyclist Lance Armstrong during his comeback for the 2009 Tour de France.  Because the subject of his analysis was Armstrong, the article generated a lot of interest, such is the nature of the news business these days that when a "celebrity" is involved readership figures go up.

It also generated a rebuttal from Dr. Michele Ferrari, an advisor and friend of Armstrong and a target of the USADA charges of being a part of a doping conspiracy involving Armstrong and his teammates.  Both Armstrong and Ferrari refused to contest the charges before sports arbitration panels.  Ferrari saying that he was never informed of the charges.  USADA responding that copies of the charges were presented to his lawyers and delivered to his home.  In response to Parisotto's conclusions, Ferrari wrote a detailed response on his website that you can find HERE.

This back and forth between sports scientists demonstrates the intricacies of the process of of attempting to prove guilt or innocence in a doping case.  It features the often uncomfortable relationship of the scientific and legal community.  Lawyers gravitate toward arguments, "proofs" that are convincing and short on ambiguity.  Scientists start with a theory and try and prove it right or wrong.  They deal in more probabilities than seeming certainty.

Why does all this matter?  While philosophers and ethics experts have a grand time debating the need  or efficacy of them, sports are defined by rules.  One of those rules is that athletes are not supposed to be able to impact the outcome of a sporting event by cheating, breaking the rules.  Using biological and/or pharmacological means to attempt to enhance one's performance is one of those rules.

So when an athlete, such as Armstrong, is charged with a doping offense sports scientists are often on different sides arguing if, in fact, a doping violation was committed.  As doping techniques have become increasingly sophisticated, the science for detected what is being done has become more complicated.  Thus we have debates like the one here where one scientist takes issue with another over what the data collected means.  The fate of the athlete depends on the outcome of that debate.

Anderson fourth, Kampf Sixth in 5th Avenue Mile

Team USA Minnesota's Gabriele Anderson finished fourth in the Fifth Avenue Mile on Saturday in New York City.  Teammate Heather Kampf was sixth.  Brenda Martinez won in 4:24.2, Anderson was timed in 4:26.5 and Kampf 4:27.8.

In the men's race brothers Elliott and Garrett Heath were eithth and ninth, respectively.  Elliott ran 3:54.3, Garrett 3:54.4. In the NYRR Men's Championship Mile Justin Grunewald finished fifteenth in 4:14.8. Full results are HERE.

Brief Q & A with Kara Goucher

Kara Goucher talks about what she learned from training for the last Olympics, her racing plans and the build up to Boston 2013, and her advice for "everyday runners" HERE.

Gopher Women win Third Straight

The University of Minnesota's  women's cross country team stayed undefeated this year, winning the UW-Eau Claire Blugold Invite. Kate Bucknam and Cassy Opitz crossed the finish line nearly together, but  behind UWEC's Ashlyn Mauer (21:42.32). Redshirt freshman Bucknam (21:47.46) edged out junior Opitz (21:47.92) for second place with a lifetime personal record.

"Those two did a great job," assistant coach Sarah Hesser said. "They took charge early, pushed the pace, and worked well together."

Rebecca Rethwisch (seventh), Jamie Vandenberg (tenth), and Paige Orcutt (thirteenth) rounded out the Gophers' top five. Kathryn Ritter came in  fourteenth.

"Rebecca Rethwisch, a redshirt freshman, has really come a long way," Hesser said. "She raced 49 seconds faster than she did here last year. She showed a lot of toughness out there today after being a little under the weather this week. The seniors also ran well. They are the rocks of that group."

Minnesota hosts the 27th annual Roy Griak Invitational next Saturday, Sept. 29 at Les Bolstad Golf Course. Full results of the Blugold Invite are HERE. 

High School Round Up

We've put together a group of links to articles on the high school XC season thus far.  Some are from this week, others older.  The trouble with trying to keep track of everything going on with the high schools is that there is no regular round up of what's happening every week.  If reader's have suggestions on articles, sources of current and upcoming meets, performances, issues on the high school scene, please write a comment directing us toward them in the Comments section.

A Minneapolis Star Tribune article on the triumvirate of big meets this weekend and next HERE.

An article from the Stillwater Gazette on the Stillwater boys team is HERE.

An article from the Sun Newspapers on Class A's Clare Flanagan ending Maria Hauger's defending AA champ Maria Hauger's four year unbeaten streak, as well as reports on  the Bauman/Rovn Invitational and Columbus Catholic Invite is HERE.

A number of articles on the White Bear boys and girls teams from the White Bear Press are HERE, HERE, and HERE.

A Rochester Post Bulletin report on the Austin HS results from the Lake City Invitational is HERE.

A St Cloud Times report on results for St. Cloud Cathedral and St. Cloud Tech are HERE.

A report on the Lucky Lindy Invitational clash between Class A powers Perham and St. Cloud Cathedral is HERE.

A report on the Perham boys team's results at the Wadena-Deer Creek Invitational is HERE.

An article on the Greenwood Invitational clash between the Bemidji and Moorhead boys teams is HERE.

A Shakopee News article on Maria Hauger's first meet after her first defeat in four years at the AppleJack Invitational is HERE.

A Chanhassan Villager report on the Bauman/Rovn Invitational is HERE.

A Monticello Times summary of the Monticello girls team's results at the Lucky Lindy Invitational  is HERE.

A Sun newspapers article on the progress of the Eagan's girls team in early season meets is HERE, a story  on Lakeville North senior Taylor Perkins is HERE, and a couple more stories on the AppleJack Invitational on the Lakeville South teams and Forest Lake girl's team are HERE and HERE.

Forest Lake Times stories on the girl's team are HERE and HERE. Stories and pictures on the boy's team are HERE and HERE.

MIAC Student-Athlete Spotlight

Photo courtesy of Gustavus 

Rebecca Hare, Gustavus Adolphus College
Junior, Wome's Cross Country, Indoor and Outdoor Track & Field
Albany, Minn. / Saint John's Preparatory School
Major: English, Minor: Spanish

Why did you choose to be a Division III student-athlete?
I wanted to attend an institution where I would have an opportunity to fulfill both my academic and athletic goals and strike a balance between the two.

What do you like most about competing in the MIAC?
I enjoy the friendly, yet competitive atmosphere, and I appreciate knowing that my teammates and our opponents are more than athletes, but pride ourselves in our education and leadership roles as well.

How do you hope your combined academic and athletic college experience will help you as you pursue future endeavors?
I hope it will show me the importance of balance between the physical and the intellectual and that they are both compatible to a single, positive and fulfilling lifestyle.

What is the greatest lesson you have learned from being a student-athlete?
I have learned to use my time effectively and to focus intently on the task at hand in order to maximize my productivity in both my academic study and athletic practice.

Who has been the most influential person in your athletic career?
My sophomore cross country coach was influential in my experience as a student-athlete because he was not a stereotypical coach. He was my English teacher, and he enjoyed inspiring us with beautiful and motivational poetry before practices and meets. He also believed we should look at running not only as a fleeting competitive sport, but as a lifelong habit to nourish and develop.

What is something that most people do not know about you?
I used to play football in elementary school, and I tried out for our collegiate rugby team. Unfortunately, I decided to quit because the rugby games conflicted with my track meet schedule. 

Wintheiser, Johnson MIAC Athletes of the Week; USTFCCCA Poll Results for Divisiion II & III

St. Olaf runners swept the MIAC Cross Country Athlete-of-the-Week awards after the Oles turned in great performances at their home invitational on Saturday. Sophomore Grant Wintheiser won the men's race and led his team to a second-place finish, while fellow sophomore Jorden Johnson finished third individually in the women's race to lead the St. Olaf women to the team championship.

In the USTFCCCA Central Region NCAA Divisions III poll for men's teams St. Olaf and St. John's maintained their rankings of first and sixth, respectively, in the region.   Hamline and Carlton each moved up with Hamline rising one spot to seventh, while Carlton moved into the top ten in ninth.  For the women, St. Olaf's stayed in second; Carleton(3) and St. Thomas(4) switched places; while St. Ben's(6), Gustavus(8) and Concordia-Moorhead(9) each moved up a spot. Full listing of the Regional rankings are HERE.

In the national men's rankings St. Olaf fell one spot to 17th. For the women St. Olaf  moved up a place to 11th, Carleton moved up three places to 21st, while St. Thomas fell seven places to 25th.  Full men's and women's national polls are HERE.

In the Division II national men's rankings, Minnesota State Mankato fell one spot to 25th.   In the women's national rankings, Minnesota State Mankato moved from not being ranked to 20th, while the University of Minnesota  Duluth fell ten places to 28th. Full national rankings are HERE.  In the Central Region rankings, the Mankato men moved up a place to third. For the women, Mankato jumped all the way up to fifth after not being ranked in the pre-season poll, while Duluth fell four places to eighth and Winona State fell one place to tenth.   Full Region rankings are HERE.

Streaking Steve Gathje

The Rochester Post-Bulletin has a story on Steve Gathje's forty year streak of running at least a mile every day HERE.

It's All About Blood

By Robin Parisotto

Robin Parisotto is a sports scientist based in Australia.  He was part of a group of Australian scientists who helped develop the first blood tests for detecting use of "blood doping" by athletes for the Sydney Olympics in 2000.  Currently his input is sought by sports federations on cases of suspected blood manipulation, biological passport abnormalities that, if confirmed, lead to the sanction of athletes for doping violations.  

The USADA(United States Anti-Doping Agency) case, where charges were brought against Lance Armstrong, his team manager, and team doctors and advisors has received a lot of attention.  Even more since Armstrong decided not to contest those charges before an arbitration panel, stating that he could not get a fair hearing in that forum.  The result being that USADA has levied sanctions commensurate with the violations listed in the charge letter.

UCI(cycling's governing body) are waiting for the details of the case file to be submitted to them before any action can be taken on the sanctions proposed by USADA, which include stripping Armstrong of his race results including his seven Tour de France victories from 1999-2005.

The following is an analysis Parisotto did recently using the blood  values cyclist Lance Armstrong posted on his website back in 2008-2009 during his comeback to competitive cycling for the 2009 Giro and Tour de France. This was not part of any official investigation into the data, but more as a matter of curiosity about available information on the case and what it can tell us.

Part of USADA’s charge letter that led to the sanctioning of Lance Armstrong(LA) and other "co-conspirators" was that there was strong evidence of blood manipulation(blood doping) in data examined by USADA. I can only presume that some/all of this data included information that Lance Armstrong had posted on a website some time ago where the UCI and USADA were referenced as the testing agencies. 

To better understand the basis for charges against Armstrong, it is worth remarking on some of this data.  The figures referenced in this article are from Armstrong's published blood values for 2008-2009.

The following graphic indicates a fairly regular and normal pattern of Hemoglobin (Hb) values until a significant drop on May 5, 2009, four days before the start of the Giro d'Italia(the Tour of Italy which was contested from May 9-31, 2009 and where Armstrong placed 12th). This is followed by a quite staggering increase on June 16, 2009 (further explained below), shortly before the Tour de France(which went from July 4, 2009 to July 25, 2009 and Armstrong placed third).

Fig.1 Hemoglobin values for LA October 2008 to July 2009

The graphic below is significant because while Hemoglobin appears to have been significantly disrupted, the reticulocytes (young red blood cells) have suddenly diminished and stabilized just before the Tour de France. This change is counter-intuitive (for reasons stated below).

Fig.1 Reticulocyte values for LA October 2008 to July 2009

The charts show a halving of the reticulocyte values in circumstances when the Hemoglobin has risen dramatically, which is not consistent with normal physiology. If one is making more red blood cells and increasing Hemoglobin then it is inconceivable to not have more immature red blood cells (reticulocytes) in the body of a normal healthy person.

The decrease in Hemoglobin  from April 30, 2009 to May 31, 2009 (149 – 130) in samples 10 to 13 is 15% however there is no expected increase in reticulocytes. In fact from October 16, 2008 the average reticulocyte levels are 1.1 but from May 18, 2009 the average reticulocyte levels are 0.6.

The sudden increase in Hb from sample May 31, 2009 to June 16, 2009 (130 – 160) in samples 13 to 15 is 23%, however the response in reticulocytes is again not consistent with normal physiology. Such a scenario is consistent with a deceleration in red blood cell production following auto-bleed and re-infusion(i.e. removal of blood to store for later re-infusion, otherwise know as blood doping). 

The subsequent low reticulocyte values are consistent with re-infusion of blood and continued micro-doses of rhuEPO(recombinant erythropoietin) to ‘stabilize’ and therefore mask the expected response in reticulocytes.

A Cycling News article of July 13, 2012 noted that if USADA were to present evidence such as this during a legal hearing of the charges, this evidence of doping would be challenged by Armstrong lawyers “by summoning medical experts who would say that a person's hematocrit score could conceivably jump 7.5 percentage points in 16 days because of external influences like changes in altitude and heavy perspiration.” Reportedly Armstrong was in Aspen, Colorado at nearly 8000 feet above sea level between the two above-mentioned tests. 

There any number of studies that refute the hypothesis that such a large increase in Hemoglobin is merely a response to altitude exposure.  To suggest that a 23% increase in Hemoglobin and a 50% decrease in reticulocytes was the result of time spent at altitude is stretching the bounds of the known and documented physiological responses to altitude exposure. For example, the Ashenden et al study in 2003 demonstrated that in no less than 7 study groups either at natural or simulated altitudes (above 2600 metres – about 8500 feet) that even after 4 weeks of exposure the increase in Hb was, at best, muted.

The largest increase in Hemoglobin was 9.5% in a group of elite cyclists returning from living and training in Toluca (Mexico) after 4 weeks. The Hemoglobin measures were taken 7 days after returning to sea level conditions. In all other study groups there was no increase or at best a 1-2% increase in Hemoglobin. Similar responses were noted with reticulocyte levels. Whatever way you cut it, Armstrong's blood values are undoubtedly indicative of blood manipulation. 

This is hard empirical evidence lending support to the charges filed by USADA.  If this profile had been submitted to me for review by me as a member of the Passport Panel(biological passports which are used by the UCI, cycling's governing body, and the IAAF),  it would have been assessed as an anti-doping rule violation particularly in view of the timing of the disturbances leading into the 2009 Tour.

Yes/No: Will Anderson and Kampf finish in top 6 at Fifth Ave. Mile?

Team USA Minnesota runners Gabriele Anderson and Heather Kampf will be in New York City this weekend to run the NYRR Fifth Avenue Mile.  They will compete against a very strong field including three former World Championship medalists.

Both Anderson and Kampf have achieved success at the 1500/Mile distance this year.  Kampf has won three road mile races including the USA Road Mile Championship.  Anderson finished fourth at the U.S. Olympic Trials in the 1500 and has run as fast as 4:04 this summer.

Let us know how they will fare on the streets of Manhattan...

Yes/No: Will Gabriele Anderson AND Heather Kampf finish in the top 6 at the NYRR Fifth Avenue Mile on Saturday?

The top runners in the field include Jenny Simpson, the defending champ, who is also the 2011 1500 World Champion.  Shannon Rowbury is another Fifth Avenue previous champion - she won in 2009 and 2010.  Rowbury is a two-time Olympian and bronze medalist at the 2009 World Championships.

Four British Olympians will compete in the race, led by 2011 World Championship silver medalist Hannah England.  Other British Olympians include Barbara Parker, Eilish McColgan and Julia Bleasdale.

The NYRR press release on the race is HERE.

To play our game, simply type "yes" or "no" into the subject line of an e-mail and send it to us at DtBFantasy [AT] gmail [DOT] com before 11:45 A.M. CDT, Saturday, September 22nd.  Please put your answers in the subject line of the e-mail and make sure your full name appears somewhere in the e-mail.

My Answer:  Yes

Last week's Yes/No question was:  Will St. Olaf Men and Women both win team titles at the St. Olaf Invitational Cross Country Meet on Saturday?  The answer was no - St. Olaf women won and their men finished second behind Minnesota State Mankato.  Seventeen players answered correctly.  Mike Mason remains in first with twenty-four points.  Ryan Aylesworth and Heather Jelen are hot on his heels with twenty-three.  

For all the results, please visit DtB Fantasy Corner, HERE.

Gopher Men and Women's Meet Recaps

The Minnesota Daily provides a recap of the Gopher men and women's meet results from the past weekend HERE.

Minnesota Men Stay in 17th in NCAA Division I XC Coaches Poll: Gopher Women Remain 30th

Men

1	Wisconsin (10)	357
2	Oklahoma State (1)	346
3	BYU (1)	341
4	Oklahoma	310
5	Portland	298
6	Colorado	293
7	Texas	287
8	Iona	272
9	Stanford	264
10	Florida State	249
11	NC State	242
12	Indiana	233
13	Syracuse	224
14	Princeton	196
15	Texas A&M	183
16	Georgetown	168
17	Minnesota	151
18	Northern Arizona	143
19	Tulsa	129
20	Villanova	126
21	Michigan	101
22	Arkansas	98
23	Notre Dame	93
24	New Mexico	91
25	Oregon	85
26	Eastern Kentucky	70
27	UCLA	54
28	Washington State	42
29	Columbia	40
30	Georgia	26
Others Receiving Votes: Virginia 12, Providence 11, Virginia Tech 10, North Carolina 9, Ohio State 7, Florida 5, Cal Poly 4, Iowa State 3, California 3, Weber State 3, Michigan State 1.
compiled by Don Kopriva

Women

1	Washington (10)	357
2	Florida State (1)	341
3	Oregon (1)	336
4	Georgetown	330
5	Iowa State	301
6	Stanford	290
7	Vanderbilt	287
8	Providence	285
9	Arkansas	251
10	Villanova	246
11	Michigan	235
12	Arizona	232
13	Michigan State	196
14	Boston College	189
15	Virginia	182
16	Weber State	168
17	Colorado	162
18	Toledo	144
19	Penn State	131
20	New Mexico	128
21	Notre Dame	125
22	Syracuse	115
23	San Francisco	100
24	Oklahoma State	98
25	West Virginia	70
26	NC State	65
27	Texas	52
28	Florida	48
29	Princeton	37
30	Minnesota	25
Others Receiving Votes: Wisconsin 16, Dartmouth 14, BYU 10, Cornell 9, Portland 2, Iowa 2, Duke 1.
compiled by Jesse Rosen