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Track and Field News, the self-proclaimed "Bible of the Sport," just published a set of Olympic Track and Field Trials predictions. If you take the magazine's word as gospel, only two Minnesotans -- Kara Goucher in the 10,000 meters and Shani Marks in the triple jump -- will make the U.S. Olympic team.The magazine, HERE, projects both Goucher and Marks as the runners-up in their events at the Trails in Eugene, Oregon. On the outside looking in, according to compiler Dave Johnson, are Jenelle Deatherage (5th) and 2004 Olympian Carrie Tollefson (8th) in the 1500, Cack Ferrell (7th) in the 5000, and Katie McGregor (5th) in the 10,000.
T&FN doesn't send any Minnesota men to Beijing. 2007 USA Outdoor champ Jim Dilling is picked for 4th in men's projections, HERE.
Also ... The hometown newspaper for the Olympic Track and Field Trials, the Eugene Register-Guard, just launched a special web-page covering the build-up to the Trails. You can find it HERE, and well as in the "Links" section on our sidebar.
What do you think? ... Is T&FN on target or off-base? Who from MN will represent the USA at the Games? Let us know with in the comments section.
(Full disclosure: Although I am a correspondent for T&FN, I have nothing to do with the predictions.)
T&FN notes that they're going "out on a limb early" with these predictions. They should have just said, "we're completely guessing here."
ReplyDeleteSeems kind of ridiculous to make predictions at this point, especially when the fields aren't really set. The Women's Olympic Trials Marathon will have a huge effect on who toes the line for the 10,000 in Eugene.
It would've been nice to see some rationale along with the predictions.
Good point about the marathon, Pete. That could open the road a little wider for both Goucher and McGregor.
ReplyDeleteI think T&FN put Minnesota's "prohibitive favorites" on the team. Goucher, after her WC bronze, and Marks, who is so steady in big meets, would be surprises NOT to make the team, I think.
I do think some of Minnesota's "iffy-er" folks -- people who could compete really well and still not make the top-three -- will be 2008 Olympians. I'd put Tollefson, Deathereage, McGregor, and Dilling in this group. I just don't think they'll all get shut out.
Then, of course, there are the longer-shots -- Brown, Riter, Carlson, Dorniden, Radocaj, etc. Who knows who among that group might have a "redefining" Trials. With Carlson and Brown, they already seem to be morphing into more than they've been in the past, for example.
It is early, but it's also fun to speculate. I forget how I voted in the DtB poll last summer, but right now I'll project five Minnesotas on the team -- including Philip Dunn who still needs to get a qualifier in the 50K walk.
Is there any more information out there on Riter, Steele, Buzard, Potter, etc.? ARe all of them training for the trials? Do any of them have a shot? You mentioned Riter, but what's going on with the rest of them?
ReplyDeleteI mentioned Riter mainly because he made the 800m final last year at USA Outdoor.
ReplyDeleteWe are over-due to catch up with Potter, Buzard, and Steele, I'll admit.
Steele has his own web-site at ...
http://adamsteele.charliegn.com/
I for one would love to see more info on those guys...I know Minnesota is mainly a distance running state, but those guys have proven we can compete on the big stage in the long sprints and middle distance events too. Since the weather outside is frightful, and I can't get my fix on high school track just yet, it would be great to know what's up with some of the "other" Minnesota Elites out there. But maybe they are in Stealth Training Mode. Love your site and keep up the great work.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words, BB ...
ReplyDeleteRe-reading my first comment, I should add that my "etc." is meant to include a lot of people ... Lehmkuhle, Graham, Gabrielson, Ferrell, Steele, Leer, Watson, Buzard, Potter, and others that I don't mean to slight.
Anyone qualifying for the Trials would fit my "longer-shot" category.
Yeah, it seems kind of strange that with the ability to update their website quickly (compared to the timeframe needed to get a magazine published), that they'd put this information up 2+ months before the trials.
ReplyDeleteAnd, as Pete said, the lack of rationale is disconcerting. They're the "Bible of the Sport" don't they have a bunch of T&F geeks just sitting around waiting to write a little analysis on something like this?
For me, the biggest surprise is leaving Andrew Carlson out of the top-10. Next it would be leaving Emily Brown out.
I guess I don't have a problem with T&FN publishing their predictions now. I'm sure they'll update them down the road.
ReplyDeleteI figured noting the predictions might make for a decent "talker" -- something for people to puzzle over and argue about. That's probably part of their thinking too.
I do agree with you, Chad, about Carlson and Brown. They're two of the biggest US distance breakthroughs of 2008 so far.
Back to this, I see Potter and Buzzard ran at St Thomas the other night. Anyone know if those times are on track for their plans? Horrible weather we've been having...on another note, any idea why the Lakeville North meets last week haven't posted results yet? That's not like them...
ReplyDelete